User's needs: probability profile definition

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User's needs: probability profile definition

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See also 'User's needs'

When entering this probability profile definition tool, please first choose the "scale" or "bin step", i.e. the classes width matching your desired power range.

During utilisation in simulation, the real hourly load power will correspond to the midpoint of a given bin, randomly chosen according to the specified probabilities.

At the first entry in this dialog, the probability values follow a default distribution. You can drag each probability on the graph, or define a given value by editor. Of course the sum should always be 100%, so that at each change all other values are modified in order to match this constraint.

With a given range and a given probability distribution, the program calculates a "most probable" day sum or monthly sum. This is not an exact value, but only the statistical average when the number of days is increasing.

If you are in "Seasonal Modulation" mode, you have to define a profile for each season. You have a facility to copy an already defined profile to one or several other seasons. For this purpose click on "Copy", choose the source profile and select the target seasons.

The same holds for the "Weekly modulation" mode.